Will NYC Rent Go Down in 2026?
Are Rent Prices Going Down in 2026? What to Expect From NYC Apartments
Renters are waiting to see if NYC rent prices will go down in 2026 — and unfortunately, the answer may be more of the same; rent prices will likely continue to climb in 2026, and possibly even more aggressively.
What the Recent Data Really Suggests
According to recent reports by both Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman, the median rent in Manhattan is expected to reach over $5,000/month in 2026, representing a 5% increase from the November 2025 median rent of over $4,750/month.
Brooklyn is expected to follow suit as well with median rents expected to surpass $4,000/month for the first time.
While nationwide, the rate of rent growth has slowed dramatically in many cities across the country, NYC is bucking the trend and rent growth is continuing unabated.
According to StreetEasy’s report asking rents already climbed 4.8% between January and October 2025.
Why Is Everything So Expensive?
Supply vs. Demand: NYC is experiencing a severe vacancy crisis. According to NYC’s own housing data, the citywide vacancy rate dropped to 1.4% in 2023 – the lowest level since 1968.
Less than 2 out of 100 apartments are currently vacant. When supply is this tight, landlords can basically charge whatever they want.
The vacancy crisis is largely a result of decades of under-building in NYC, dating back to the 1990s.
Thousands of new apartments have been completed in NYC in recent years, however, it has done very little to alleviate the current vacancy crisis due to high demand.
Young Professionals Keep Flocking To NYC. Between 2021 and 2024, NYC attracted twice as many recent college graduates as any other U.S. city, according to migration studies. As young professionals compete for apartments, the price of those apartments increases - basic supply and demand.
The Mortgage Rate Problem
At 6%+ and projected to remain at least that high until 2027, according to Zillow’s projections, mortgage rates are making it difficult for potential homebuyers to enter the market.
Instead of buying homes, they’re renewing their apartment leases and taking up space that would otherwise be available to renters.
One Surprising Bright Spot: New Buildings
Contrary to what you might think, new development buildings can sometimes provide lower prices.
Data shows that the rent growth in new constructions rose 20% from 2019 to 2025, compared to 23.1% in older pre-war buildings.
New developments tend to throw in extras to get renters into their units quickly such as offering free rent (1-2 months). They also have a ton of amenities that older buildings do not such as:
• 61% of new construction buildings have a resident lounge.
• 63% of new construction buildings have a rooftop deck.
• 19% of new construction buildings have a coworking space.
These types of amenities are especially appealing to the growing demographic of 45-50-year-old renters (based on 2013-2023 data).
Politics: Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s Promises
When Mayor Zohran Mamdani took office in January 2026, he made promises regarding tenant protections and increasing the rate of housing production in NYC.
While he ran on a platform of a rent freeze, real estate experts believe he won’t make good on that promise. That said, the new mayor is expected to advocate strongly for limits on rent increases and protection for tenants against landlord harassment.
Approximately 45% of all rental units in NYC are governed by the Rent Stabilization Law and the remaining 55% are governed by the Good Cause
Eviction protections, so essentially all of NYC’s rental market is subject to either a rent cap or rent stabilization law.
Smart Moves for NYC Renters in 2026
Timing matters. Summer (May-August) tends to be the time of highest rental activity as recent college graduates look for apartments. Therefore, renters will have better bargaining power in late winter or early spring when demand for rentals is typically lower.
Be willing to negotiate. Even in a difficult rental market, landlords prefer to give renters small incentives like reduced security deposits or flexible move-in dates to not leave units vacant for extended periods. There is no harm in asking for a small rent discount — the worst they can do is tell you no.
Consider renting in a new construction building. Although new construction buildings are often priced at a premium initially, the inclusion of move-in specials and additional amenities can offset the cost and create a better value for renters than older apartments.
Look outside of Manhattan. Brooklyn, Queens and parts of the Bronx may offer a better value for renters while providing easy access to the rest of the city via public transportation.
The Long Game
There is hope on the horizon for NYC renters, just don’t expect it anytime soon. The “City of Yes for Housing Opportunity” plan aims to construct 80,000 new housing units over the course of the next 15 years.
Additionally, the new 485-X Tax Abatement Program (the successor to the old 421-A program) provides financial incentives for builders to develop smaller-scale projects (under 100 units).
The problem with this plan is that it will take a long time before renters experience meaningful relief from the impact of these policies.
The Bottom Line
NYC rent prices are not going to come down in 2026. With a 1.4% vacancy rate, strong unemployment numbers, high mortgage rates above 6%, and thousands of new residents entering the rental market and competing for a severely limited number of apartments, the environment is ripe for rent increases to be the norm, not the exception.
If you find an apartment that meets your requirements and fits within your budget, seriously consider signing the lease agreement.
If you wait for rent prices to fall, you may end up watching the area you wanted to live in become increasingly unaffordable while you delay.
In NYC’s rental market, acting decisively often results in a better outcome than waiting for the right opportunity.
Sources:
Miller Samuel & Douglas Elliman: November 2025 Rental Report
StreetEasy: 2026 NYC Housing Market Predictions (December 2025)
NYC Comptroller's Office: Office-to-Residential Conversions Report (July 2025)
Zillow: 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecasts
NYC Housing & Vacancy Survey: 2023 Data
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