Should You Buy Austin Real Estate in 2026?
Should You Buy Real Estate in Austin in 2026?
Austin’s housing landscape is dramatically different than it was three years ago. If you’ve been observing from the sidelines and thinking “when” or “if” you should take action, the data tell a compelling story of where things stand right now.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Austin’s median home price as of November 2025 is $430,000, based on data provided by Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors. Home prices in Austin decreased by 1.1 percent last year and 20 percent from the high of $550,000 in May 2022.
To put that in perspective, homes that sold for $550,000 just three years ago are now selling for $120,000 less. That’s real money back in your pocket!
However, the only other change besides prices is how long homes sit on the market. Compared to the 30-day frenzy of 2021 – 2022, the median time a home sits on the market today is 79 days.
As of today, the Austin Metro area has approximately 5.3 months worth of inventory, thus making it a buyer’s market (more than 4 months of inventory means buyers have leverage).
Why Did This Happen?
The pandemic created what economists refer to as a “speculative bubble.” Remote work caused many tech employees and out-of-state buyers to flood into Austin and rapidly push home prices upward at double-digits per quarter.
In fact, Realtor.com stated that Austin ranked #3 nationally among cities with the worst home value declines in 2025; Austin saw a 6.1% drop in median listing price to $479,000 – which equates to $26,870 less than last year.
Reality has set in. Suburban areas are now seeing new construction, investors are selling properties that no longer make financial sense, and buyers are actually taking time to evaluate their decision-making processes versus waving inspections and bidding above list price.
Smart buyers are also thinking ahead about maintaining their investment—from scheduling a thorough cleaning with services like Sparkly Maid NYC before moving in, to budgeting for ongoing upkeep that preserves property value over time.
What About Mortgage Rates in Austin?
Let’s face facts — rates in the 6.5 – 7% range are far from optimal. However, consider the following: A $430,000 home purchased with 20% down at 7% will have a monthly principal and interest payment of roughly $2300.
That same home at $550,000 in 2022, even at a 5% rate, would've cost you about $2,360 monthly.
These are similar monthly payments but you're building equity on an asset that's $120,000 cheaper.
Additionally, the National Association of Realtors states that mortgage rates are expected to be approximately 6.1% in 2026, creating future refinancing options.
Austin Neighborhoods Make a Difference
Not all Austin neighborhoods are experiencing the same market trends. Below is the breakdown of neighborhoods in Austin based upon November 2025 data:
City of Austin: Median price $565,000 (down 1.5% year-over-year)
Travis County: Median price $505,000 (down 1% year-over-year)
Williamson County: Median price $415,000 (down 3.5% year-over-year)
Hays County: Median price $390,000 (up 7% year-over-year)
Caldwell County: Median price $265,000 (most affordable option)
If you’re open to living outside of downtown Austin (Georgetown, Pflugerville, Kyle), you’ll see much better value. You can expect to pay 30-50% less for a similar property in these areas.
What Experts Are Saying About 2026
Forecasts for 2026 vary, but most experts predict continued stabilization as opposed to extreme fluctuation.
Zillow predicts an additional .8-2.4% decrease in home values through mid-2026, while The Luxury Playbook foresees a moderate 2-4% increase with median values stabilizing around $545,000.
In summary, you may save another $10,000-$20,000 by waiting a few months more, however, you’ll also continue to rent, and potentially miss houses you really want to purchase.
Current data indicates that 56.3% of active listings have already received price reductions, indicating motivated sellers.
The Reality Check
First-time buyers need to understand this: Redfin data reports that the Austin market is “somewhat competitive” with the average number of offers being 2 and homes selling after 74 days. This is a far cry from 2022’s 15-offer scenarios and 24 hour bidding wars.
You now have time to:
Schedule multiple showings without pressure
Get thorough inspections
Negotiate on price and repairs
Actually think about whether you like the house
Austin’s fundamentals remain strong such as there is no state income tax, several large employers such as Tesla and Oracle operate facilities in Austin, and population growth will continue (at a more reasonable pace).
During the past 25 years, Austin's appreciation for residential real estate has averaged an annual appreciation of 4.886%, based on historical data from local market analysts.
This steady growth mirrors patterns seen in other rapidly developing urban markets like Brooklyn, where consistent appreciation has rewarded long-term investors.
Should You Buy Real Estate in Austin in 2026?
If you’re prepared financially — stable job, excellent credit score, sufficient down payment — and intend to reside in the home for a minimum of 5-7 years, then 2026 represents an excellent opportunity to acquire a home in Austin at discounted prices.
You’re acquiring a home at a price that is 20% less than the prior peak, with actual negotiation power.
This market won’t collapse any further (it’s predicted to stabilize gradually), and we don’t anticipate a return to the 2021-2022 levels either.
This appears to represent the most favorable buying opportunity in this cycle for buyers.
Stop attempting to wait until the lowest possible price. You are already purchasing at a 20% discount from peak.
Identify a location you wish to reside, secure a reasonable rate for your loan, and begin accumulating equity rather than paying another person’s mortgage.
Sources:
Austin Board of Realtors - Median home price data ($430,000 as of November 2025)
Via CultureMap Austin article
Unlock MLS - Austin market statistics and year-over-year price changes
Via CultureMap Austin article
CultureMap Austin - November 2025 real estate report
Link: https://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/november-2025-real-estate-report/
Realtor.com - Austin's 6.1% home value decline and third-worst decline ranking nationally
Via CultureMap Austin article on metros where home values fell
National Association of Realtors (NAR) - Mortgage rate forecast (6.1% average for 2026)
Via Norada Real Estate blog
Norada Real Estate - Market analysis and forecasts
Link: https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/austin-real-estate-market/
The Luxury Playbook - 2026 forecast (2-4% increase prediction)
Link: https://theluxuryplaybook.com/austin-real-estate-market/
Team Price Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing - Price cut statistics (56.3% of listings)
Link: https://teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing/2025-12-26
Redfin - Market competitiveness data (2 offers average, 74 days to sell)
Link: https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/housing-market
Zillow - 2026 price forecast (0.8-2.4% decrease prediction)
Via Norada Real Estate blog
Spyglass Realty - Historical context and market analysis
Link: https://www.spyglassrealty.com/blog/austin-housing-market.html
Read more:
Should You Buy NYC Real Estate in 2026?