Should You Buy Austin Real Estate in 2026?
Should You Buy Real Estate in Austin in 2026?
The Austin Housing Market Is a Buyer's Paradise Right Now. Since 2023, Austin has gone from a housing crisis to a buyer's paradise.
Right now, the numbers paint a very interesting picture of what is happening in Austin right now.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Median Home Price In Austin: Down 1.1 Percent Last Year And 22 Percent From High Of $550,000
The median home price in Austin as of November 2025 is $430,000 according to the Austin Board of Realtors and Unlock MLS. The median home price in Austin declined by 1.1 percent last year and 22 percent from the high of $550,000 in May 2022.
For example, if you bought a home in Austin that sold for $550,000 in May 2022, you would currently be able to buy that same home for $430,000, saving you $120,000.
However, the only two factors that have changed since the height of the market in 2021 – 2022, are the price of homes and how long they sit on the market.
Homes used to sell in 30 days or less; now it takes approximately 79 days for a home to sell in Austin.
Austin Has Approximately 5.3 Months Worth Of Inventory; It Is A Buyers' Market (More Than 4 Months Of Inventory Indicates Sellers Must Offer More Leverage To Buyers)
There are approximately 5.3 months worth of inventory in the Austin Metro Area, therefore making it a buyer's market (anywhere with more than 4 months of inventory makes it easier for buyers to negotiate a lower price).
Why Did This Happen?
The Pandemic Created A "Speculative Bubble". Remote work caused a massive influx of tech employees and out-of-state buyers into Austin in 2021 – 2022; causing home prices to rise rapidly.
In fact, Realtor.com reported that Austin was one of the top 3 worst performing cities nationally when it came to decline in home value in 2025; Austin saw a 6.1% drop in median listing price to $479,000 – which is equivalent to a $26,870 drop from last year.
Reality Has Set In. Suburbs Are Seeing New Construction, Investors Are Selling Properties Due To Lack Of Financial Viability, And Buyers Have Time To Evaluate Their Decision Making Process.
Smart buyers are evaluating their investment decisions carefully, including hiring services such as Sparkly Maid NYC to clean the home thoroughly before closing on it, as well as setting aside funds for maintenance and upkeep of the home.
What About Mortgage Rates in Austin?
While the current mortgage rates in the 6.5 – 7% range are not ideal, it is important to remember that there are still benefits to purchasing a home at this time.
A $430,000 home with 20% down at 7% would have a monthly principal and interest payment of approximately $2300.
Compare that to a $550,000 home in 2022 at 5%; your monthly principal and interest payment would have been $2360.
So while you are paying the same amount each month, you are building equity on a $120,000 less expensive asset.
According to the National Association of Realtors, mortgage rates are expected to be approximately 6.1% in 2026, providing future refinancing options.
Austin Neighborhoods Make a Difference
Not all neighborhoods in Austin are experiencing the same level of downward movement in the median home price. Below is the breakdown of the neighborhoods in Austin based on the median home price as of November 2025.
City of Austin: Median price $565,000 (down 1.5% year-over-year)
Travis County: Median price $505,000 (down 1% year-over-year)
Williamson County: Median price $415,000 (down 3.5% year-over-year)
Hays County: Median price $390,000 (up 7% year-over-year)
Caldwell County: Median price $265,000 (most affordable option)
If you are willing to live in the suburbs of Austin (Georgetown, Pflugerville, Kyle), you will find significantly better value. For instance, you could expect to pay 30-50% less for a similar property in these areas.
Experts Predict Continued Stabilization In Austin's Market Through 2026
Experts are predicting continued stabilization in Austin's market, rather than extreme fluctuations.
Zillow is predicting an additional 0.8-2.4% decrease in home values through mid-2026.
The Luxury Playbook is predicting a moderate 2-4% increase in median home values in Austin, with median values stabilizing around $545,000.
In summary, you may save another $10,000-$20,000 by waiting a few months more, however, you’ll also continue to rent, and potentially miss houses you really want to purchase.
Currently, 56.3% of active listings have already had price reductions, indicating that sellers are motivated.
Reality Check
First-Time Homebuyers Need To Understand The Current State Of The Austin Market.
Redfin reported that the current Austin market is "somewhat competitive," with an average of 2 offers and homes sitting on the market for approximately 74 days.
Compared to 2022, when buyers would submit 15 offers for a single home and engage in bidding wars lasting only 24 hours, the current state of the Austin market is relatively calm.
You now have time to:
Visit multiple homes without feeling pressured to make an offer immediately
Obtain a comprehensive inspection of the home
Negotiate on both price and repairs
Take time to determine if you truly like the home
There Are Many Fundamentals That Continue To Support The Austin Market such as Texas does not collect state income tax, so there are no state taxes to worry about.
Additionally, several large employers, including Tesla and Oracle, have established operations in Austin, and the city continues to grow in terms of population.
Historical data from local market analysts shows that Austin's residential real estate market has appreciated annually by an average of 4.886% during the past 25 years.
This steady appreciation mirrors the pattern seen in other rapidly growing urban markets, including Brooklyn, where consistent appreciation has rewarded long-term investors.
Whether Or Not To Purchase Real Estate In Austin During 2026
If you are financially prepared to purchase a home in Austin - having a stable job, good credit, sufficient down payment, etc. - and plan to occupy the home for a minimum of 5 – 7 years, then 2026 appears to be a great time to purchase a home in Austin at discounted prices.
You are acquiring a home at a price that is 20% less than the previous peak, giving you some negotiating room.
We do not believe this market will collapse any further and that we will not return to the extreme highs seen between 2021 and 2022.
It seems to us that this represents the best buying opportunity in this cycle for buyers.
Do Not Wait Until Prices Are At The Lowest Possible Point. You Already Purchasing At A 20% Discount From Peak.
Just Identify Where You Want To Live, Secure A Reasonable Rate On Your Loan, And Start Building Equity Instead Of Paying Another Person's Mortgage.
Sources:
Austin Board of Realtors - Median home price data ($430,000 as of November 2025)
Via CultureMap Austin article
Unlock MLS - Austin market statistics and year-over-year price changes
Via CultureMap Austin article
CultureMap Austin - November 2025 real estate report
Link: https://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/november-2025-real-estate-report/
Realtor.com - Austin's 6.1% home value decline and third-worst decline ranking nationally
Via CultureMap Austin article on metros where home values fell
National Association of Realtors (NAR) - Mortgage rate forecast (6.1% average for 2026)
Via Norada Real Estate blog
Norada Real Estate - Market analysis and forecasts
Link: https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/austin-real-estate-market/
The Luxury Playbook - 2026 forecast (2-4% increase prediction)
Link: https://theluxuryplaybook.com/austin-real-estate-market/
Team Price Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing - Price cut statistics (56.3% of listings)
Link: https://teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing/2025-12-26
Redfin - Market competitiveness data (2 offers average, 74 days to sell)
Link: https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/housing-market
Zillow - 2026 price forecast (0.8-2.4% decrease prediction)
Via Norada Real Estate blog
Spyglass Realty - Historical context and market analysis
Link: https://www.spyglassrealty.com/blog/austin-housing-market.html
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